Influence of Hurricane Wind Field Variability on Real‐Time Forecast Simulations of the Coastal Environment

Dynamic conditions occur in the coastal ocean during severe storms. Forecasting these is challenging, and large-scale numerical models require significant computing power. In this paper, we describe a real-time modeling system (DUNEX-RT), developed support of During Nearshore Event experiment (DUNEX) off coast North Carolina, United States America. The model run with wave, current, water level boundary from larger-scale models, provides 36-h forecasts wave height, depth-averaged velocity, levels every 6-h using Delft3D-SWAN. Observations at different times are compared communicated via an interactive website to verify performance visualize uncertainty changing inputs. Here, evaluate sensitivity inputs seven atmospheric hindcasts two for Hurricane Dorian September 2019. results emphasize importance accurate wind forcing, differences observed between output input forcing produced times. best were achieved high resolution rapid refresh model, overall, DUNEX-RT had low errors 33 level, current sites across system. heights also over longer period 49 days. Overall, good forecast skill wide range time suggest that high-resolution regional approach could be applied other areas.